🏡 North County Market Report: May 2025

“The Sunshine Tax Still Applies—But Now It’s Being Negotiated”

Welcome to the June edition of “What in the Zillow is Going On Out Here?”—your unofficial (but way more entertaining) look at real estate across North San Diego County.

We’re talking Encinitas, Carlsbad, Oceanside, Vista, Escondido, and Fallbrook/Bonsall—aka where people come to live their California dreams, until they see how much air conditioning costs.

Spoiler alert: The market is still moving, but it’s not doing cartwheels for overpriced listings anymore. Buyers got calculators. Sellers got feelings. Let’s see who wins.

📍 Encinitas: Zen, Surf, and Price Sensitivity

Encinitas used to be “list it and they will come.” Now? More like “list it right or prepare for ghost town open houses.”

• Inventory: Slightly up.

• Buyer energy: Still here, but more matcha than Red Bull.

• Mood: Coastal calm… with a passive-aggressive “Why is this place $300K over comps?”

Translation: If the home isn’t HGTV-ready and within 5 minutes of Moonlight Beach, buyers are swiping left.

📍 Carlsbad: The Fancy Cousin Who Knows Their Worth

Carlsbad is still flexing with top schools, beaches, and $17 smoothies—but even flexing has a limit.

• Active listings: Solid.

• Pending deals: Mostly sub-$1.6M.

• Sold: Down a tick.

• Expired listings: Up—because reality checks are back in style.

Pro Tip: If your ocean view is technically binocular-required, don’t price it like it’s front-row at the Del.

📍 Oceanside: Two Markets, One Zip Code

Oceanside is having a bit of an identity crisis. Half the city thinks it’s Laguna Beach; the other half is priced like 2009. Buyers are confused—and backing away slowly.

• Active: Up.

• Pendings: Down.

• Withdrawn/Canceled: Up enough to start a support group.

Key Insight: Buyers want walkability and value. If your listing needs a new roof and a map to find the beach, better come with a discount and snacks.

📍 Vista: Land of Potential (and Price Cuts)

Vista is where folks go when they want a yard and enough cash left to furnish it. But sellers? Some are pricing like it’s 2021, others like it’s a fire sale.

• Active: Big increase.

• Pending: Meh.

• Sold: Choppy.

• Mood: Nervous optimism wrapped in denial.

Rory’s Rule: If your listing photos still have Christmas lights in June, don’t expect a Fourth of July offer.

📍 Escondido: The Tale of Two Markets

Escondido is the market equivalent of ordering a cocktail and getting a mocktail—it looks fine until you realize it’s missing something. That something is buyer energy over $1M.

• Under $900K: Moving (barely).

• Over $1M: Crickets.

• Withdrawals: High in the ego-priced category.

Reality Check: If you’re selling a “country estate” and your buyer needs Wi-Fi, a gravel driveway isn’t helping your case.

📍 Fallbrook & Bonsall: Rural, Rustic, and Slightly Rejected

The avocado capital is still pretty—but that alone won’t sell the house. Buyers are picky. They want charm, not chores.

• Active: High.

• Pendings: Slowing.

• Sold: Mostly with killer marketing or killer views.

• Withdrawn: Farmers aren’t the only ones bailing this season.

Summary: A fixer on acreage isn’t a feature. It’s a “maybe… if it’s cheap enough.”

📊 North County Summary: Let’s Call It What It Is

We’re in the age of qualified buyers and disqualified pricing. Want your home to sit for 60 days? Price it like you’re immune to competition. Want it to sell? Price it like someone’s actually going to Google it.

• Smart marketing is separating winners from wishers.

• The MLS is no longer magic.

• And your Zillow estimate is not a personality trait.

⚠️ Seller PSA: What Happens If You Wait?

• You miss your best buyers while waiting for someone to fall in love with your memories.

• You become the “price reduced” listing every agent uses in their CMA.

• You start making excuses like: “We’re not in a hurry…” (translation: We blew it.)

💡 Broker Thoughts (aka Truth Bombs from Rory)

Listen, I get it. You love your house. You think it’s worth every penny. But guess what? Buyers love deals, not your emotional attachments.

That’s where we come in. At Compadre Brokers, we don’t pray—we position, profile, and promote. We market like we’re selling a lifestyle, not a listing.

You get:

✅ Targeted campaigns
✅ Buyer psychology hacks
✅ A pricing strategy that doesn’t kill your momentum
✅ And yes… a little sass when you need it

📱 Text or call me at 760-216-4212
🗓 Or grab a time at book.rorythebroker.com/meetrory

🧠 Final Gut Check for Sellers

• Do you really want to sell—or do you want to win a pricing contest that no one’s playing?

• Are you selling a house—or selling an idea of what it used to be worth?

• Would you buy your own house for that price right now? (Be honest.)

If not, it’s time for strategy, not sentiment.